G Letter - Spring 2020 – Expecting Certainty Is Delusional

"Without the element of uncertainty, the bringing off of even the greatest business triumph would be dull, routine and eminently unsatisfying."-- J. Paul Getty

Contrary to popular belief, weather forecasts are reliably accurate.  If there is a 30% chance of rain, it rains 30% of the time. The problem is that most people are looking for something that the weatherman and most health experts in the middle of the COV-19 crisis can’t provide: certainty.

Expecting certainty is unrealistic and potentially dangerous because it gives people a false sense of security as they wait for things to magically play out the way they expect.   People seem to naturally desire things they can’t have. The world we live in is a complex system with multiple variables that affect it that are constantly changing. The most leverage you have over the world around you lies in what you do with the things you control (i.e. social distancing, how often you follow up on prospect leads for your business etc.)  Con artists exploit people’s desire for certainty by making big promises they never intend to keep--Bernie Madoff did this by promising a high fixed annual return to his clients. The only thing we have complete control over is our thoughts and our actions--the good news is that this gives us plenty to work with! Onward & upward!